# xMins (Expected Minutes)

xMins represents the average minutes a player might play across 1,000 simulations, factoring in rotation, injury risk, tactical considerations and the latest news.

# How It Works

Probability-weighted: Reflects mixed scenarios (e.g. 51 xMins = blend of starts and cameos)
Decay over time: Considers injury risk and rotation patterns across the horizon
Calibrated output: xMins are coherent across the site's projections
User customisation: Editable to reflect your own assessments
Human-in-the-loop: Human validation throughout the week alongside automated updates

# Special Features

High rotation modelling: Can model specific rotation events for particular matches
Advanced factors: Injury proneness influencing decay, as does how securely players own their role
Non-linear influence on EV: EV is not directly proportional to xMins, due to the FPL scoring system and nature of football events

# Updates

Regular updates: xMins refresh hourly
Automated injury updates: Integrated continuously
Post-match validation: Carried out in days following matches
Pressers: Key information from press conferences validated shortly after
Leaked news: Reviewed and factored approaching deadline
Deadline re-run: To discourage over-fitting for the Season Review ranks, projections are re-run at the deadline