# Understanding Expected Value (EV)

# What is Expected Value?

Expected Value (EV) is the projected average points a player will score in any given match. It's calculated based on expected performance data and expected playing time. Typically these expected values are generated by statistical modelling or market data, but they can also be generated based on personal belief - so all of the below also applies to "mind-models" too.

One way of thinking about these expectations, for example, is imagining if the game was to be played 1,000 times - what would the average outcome be?

# How It Is Calculated

EV uses probability distributions for different outcomes. For example, a striker facing a weak defence might have:

40% chance of 0 goals = 0 points
35% chance of 1 goal = 4 points
20% chance of 2 goals = 8 points
5% chance of 3 goals = 12 points

This means we have an expectation that on average the player will score 0.90 goals, earning 3.6 points.

This is then calculated for all scoring categories (assists, clean sheets, bonus etc.) and combined for the total match EV.

# What EV Is Useful For

EV excels at rating players in a calibrated manner and identifying value opportunities. Use it to:

Compare transfer targets objectively
Identify undervalued players
Transfer timing decisions
Chip usage planning
Squad structure
Dataset to feed into solvers

Note

It is important to understand that the projections are the average across a distribution. A 6.0 EV player might score 0, 3, 12, 24 or anywhere in between in any given week.

Note

Two players with identical EV can have very different risk profiles. Potential risk in FPL can largely be simplified as being proportional to EO × EV.

Note

Players from the same team & opposing teams aren't independent – their performances can be positively/negatively correlated.

# Using EV Effectively

Use EV as your starting point for objective player comparison, but combine it with your football knowledge, risk tolerance, and squad needs. Differences of 0.5EV over a 12GW horizon hold little meaning.

Consider your tolerance for variance - sacrificing some EV at times may be the best route to consolidate your position, leverage risk for the chance of best-case outcomes, or simply as a means of enjoying the game as per your preference.

Understanding Expected Value provides the foundation for making informed, analytical FPL decisions. While no source of EV can ever be perfect and should be combined with other considerations, it offers the most objective method available for comparing players and evaluating strategies.